I predict that the asset side of China's local government recovery ledger will be stronger than expected.
Big state assets, like the HSR system, return a steady 6%-8%, and standouts like the Three Gorges return 200%-300% annually. Older projects like the Dujiang Water Diversion return 100% daily. The Chinese are good with money, remember.
As to 'China’s post-pandemic recovery has been relatively tepid,' I tremble to think what 'hot' would look like.
No other country has ever grown as fast as China is growing this year, by $1.5 Tn.
No other country's wages have grown as fast as China's, an indicator of real economic growth.
Here is some of the output (sorry for the poor formatting). I took down the estimate to 44% and you should be able to make out the key forecast variables:
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Motor Vehicle Fleet - Passenger-Car Equivalents (millions)
Thank you, I really appreciate it. One more thing: do the production numbers and percentages include exports, or are they just for cars sold domestically?
I predict that the asset side of China's local government recovery ledger will be stronger than expected.
Big state assets, like the HSR system, return a steady 6%-8%, and standouts like the Three Gorges return 200%-300% annually. Older projects like the Dujiang Water Diversion return 100% daily. The Chinese are good with money, remember.
As to 'China’s post-pandemic recovery has been relatively tepid,' I tremble to think what 'hot' would look like.
No other country has ever grown as fast as China is growing this year, by $1.5 Tn.
No other country's wages have grown as fast as China's, an indicator of real economic growth.
Hi Glen,
Is it possible that I may have the documents for your model of the electrification of China's vehicle fleet?
You mentioned on Twitter a little while ago that your model predicted that 47% of China's cars would be EVs in 2030.
Here is some of the output (sorry for the poor formatting). I took down the estimate to 44% and you should be able to make out the key forecast variables:
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Motor Vehicle Fleet - Passenger-Car Equivalents (millions)
ICE 331 324 314 298 283 267 251 229
Hybrid 6 9 11 13 13 14 14 14
EV 18 30 45 65 89 118 152 188
Total 355 363 371 376 385 399 417 431
YoY Growth (%) 6% 2% 2% 1% 2% 4% 5% 3%
% of Fleet
ICE 93% 89% 85% 79% 73% 67% 60% 53%
Hybrid 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
EV 5% 8% 12% 17% 23% 30% 36% 44%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Cars per 1,000 252 257 263 267 274 284 298 310
Production (Commercial and Passenger)
ICE 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 8
Hybrid 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0
EV 8 11 15 20 25 30 35 40
Total 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
Production (%)
ICE 59% 52% 48% 42% 36% 29% 23% 17%
Hybrid 11% 11% 7% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1%
EV 30% 37% 45% 54% 62% 70% 76% 82%
Thank you, I really appreciate it. One more thing: do the production numbers and percentages include exports, or are they just for cars sold domestically?
Domestic only