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drllau's avatar

For ICE vs EV, the key variable is (gravimetric) energy density. On a MJ/kg basis gasoline is 2 orders of magnitude higher, before adjustment by the conversion efficiency as you detailed convincingly. The cross-over point is about 200km, which means great for short commutes in tight cities (where smog is also a problem) but less so for say widely dispersed places like Australia. This is also impacted by the copper wiring infrastructure and long-transmission HV lines.

The technoeconomics change also for planes/ships (existing bunkering facilities).

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Pxx's avatar

From a raw energy point of view, ethanol is a loser.

But it makes more sense (for now) because of the different energy-forms of the input and output for the process. And the peculiarities of the North American vs global commodity availability & transport.

The input for the important fertilizer and distillation parts of the corn-ethanol process, is natural gas. Natgas is abundant on the continent, and a key attribute of fracking is the short time-scale. Fracking dumps out most of its value in the first 2 years. Thus it is easier compared to traditional oil/gas investments, to both ramp up and ramp down to follow demand in medium term.

The cost of natgas at the wellhead in North America is also tiny, due to the super-producing dry-gas ends of the shales. Most of the attention is focused on the wet ends of the geology, because dry gas is just not worth much. The reason it isn't worth much is because connection to the global market is limited by lack of intercontinental LNG transport. That lack is structural, the transport infrastructure is slow to construct and energetically inefficient anyway.

The output of the corn-ethanol process, on the other hand, is a liquid motor fuel which due to substitution is price-connected to the global market.

So until such time as NEV's displace ICE in North America, there is a logic to it. The side effect of discouraging US investment in EV's is all the more true because of this.

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