Can poor people in China afford a bullet train?
Can poor people in China afford a bullet train?
More affordable than one might think
Leisure travel is difficult for poor people anywhere in the world and taking a relatively luxurious bullet train “for fun” is not really affordable for low-income Chinese people either.
But if they must travel for practical reasons (e.g. a migrant worker travelling to a coastal city to work) they will — like any discerning consumer — research and weigh the pros and cons of the various options.
Let’s consider the case of a migrant worker from Hunan who works in Shenzhen and is considering his various transportation options to get home for the holidays.
The Options
High-speed rail
Cost: RMB389 (US$57) 1-way for a second-class ticket from Shenzhen to Changsha (the capital of Hunan Province)
Travel Time: 3 hours and 10 minutes
Comfort: More comfortable than an economy-class airline ticket
Location: Train stations typically located near city centers with tightly integrated intermodal transport links (subway, local rail, buses)
Regular rail
Cost: RMB112 (US$17) for a 1-way hard seat to RMB381 ($56) for a “soft sleeper”
Travel Time: 10 hours and 7 minutes (K1348 class sleeper train)
Comfort: Hard seat is not that comfortable, especially for a 10-hour trip. “Soft sleeper” is similar to 4-berth cabins on European trains
Location: Train stations typically located near city centers with tightly integrated intermodal transport links (subway, local rail, buses)
Airplane
Cost: RMB650 (US$96) and up for an economy-class ticket
Travel Time: 1 hour and 30 minutes flight time plus extra check-in time which probably puts it on par with HSR
Comfort: Typical economy-class airline ticket
Location: Airports typically located farther from city center which may add a bit of inconvenience
Long-Distance Bus
Cost: Around RMB150 (US$22)
Travel Time: Comparable to a regular train over long distances
Comfort: Varies. Usually no power outlet.
Location: Bus stations are usually located close to train stations.
Other factors: Easier to flex capacity and purchase a ticket during peak times
Sharing a Car
Cost: RMB253 ($37) based on some assumptions [Note 1]
Travel Time: Moderately faster than bus, even more point-to-point
Comfort: Four people in a relatively small sedan for 8 to 10 hours (plus break time)
Location: Most convenient — can be dropped off directly at end destination
Other factors: Need a car or a friend with a car that is going to the same location. Probably also an app for this.
Minimum Wage Workers
The legal minimum wage in Shenzhen is RMB2,130 per month which is equivalent to annual income of around $3,775. On an hourly basis the minimum wage is RMB19.5 (US$2.88). This is the economic basis on which a typical lower-income Chinese worker might have to make a decision about transportation options. Let’s go down the list.
For the Shenzhen-Changsha trip, I think air travel is out for this person. It is not really any more convenient at this point than high-speed rail and it is much more expensive. Planes would only start to make sense at longer distances or between cities that do not have direct high-speed rail links.
Regular rail and long-distance bus are comparable options in terms of price and comfort. Buses might be better if the end destination is not a major city with direct inter-city rail links. But for Changsha to Shenzhen, this is not an issue. However, the issue might be one of capacity. During peak times, rail tickets are typically sold out fast so prospective travelers would be forced to look at a bus or other options (like the shared car).
So the question then is whether a lower-income worker might choose high-speed rail over a regular train. This is purely a financial vs. convenience trade-off decision. Would you pay RMB277 (US$40) more for a more comfortable seat and being able to get home in seven fewer hours? For someone making minimum wage in Shenzhen, this is equivalent to an extra 14 hours of work.
It does feels like a bit of a splurge but is not entirely out of the question — especially for someone who might make this trip only twice a year (Chinese New Year and Mid-Autumn Festival). I can totally imagine the migrant worker thinking to him/herself, “I’ve been working so hard all year, I deserve to treat myself …”
Another way to analyze this question of affordability is to compare China with other rail systems. Let’s take a look at Taiwan’s HSR system. The 345-km Taipei to Kaohsiung HSR ride is about half the distance of the Shenzhen-to-Changsha trip and takes around two hours. The cost of a standard ticket is NT1,490 ($49) while a bus ticket is approximately NT500. The legal minimum wage in Taiwan is NT133 per hour so a lower-Income worker would need to work 7 more hours to pay for HSR vs. bus. While this is less than the 14 hours for the Shenzhen minimum-wage worker, the trip is also about half the distance. So another way to think about this question is that China is around the same affordability level as Taiwan for lower-income workers.
I have traveled via Chinese high-speed rail several times, including a couple times in second class. While first and business class are really only filled by “white collar” type passengers, I noticed that around half of second class is filled by clearly “blue collar” migrant worker-types. This was a small bit of anecdotal evidence that high-speed rail is not completely out of the reach of lower-income Chinese workers.
Indeed, the issue with travelling via high-speed rail during holiday periods is probably going to be less about cost and more about availability — it is nearly impossible to secure any train ticket, much less a high-speed one, during those times.
Note
[Note 1] Assumptions:
Distance of 789 km
Cost per km of around RMB1.25 which is approximately 50% fuel and 50% other driving costs (depreciation, maintenance, tires etc.)
This was originally published on Quora in August 2018.